World Food Crisis

MAC/WFY

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197090. The World Food Crisis of the 1970s and its Aftermath

fast as the developed countries, a truly remarkable achievement. The difference
lay in their rates of growth in demand for food (3.5 per cent per annum in
the developing countries compared to 2.5 per cent in the developed world) due
mainly to faster population growth. But agricultural performance was by no means
uniform throughout the developing world. While food production in the sub-
continent of India rose impressively under the impact of the Green Revolution, it
stagnated in sub-Saharan Africa. As a consequence, the need for food imports rose
markedly in developing countries at a time when their ability to purchase them
on commercial terms did not increase commensurately.

In addition to the accumulating problems of food production and availability,

there was the equally vital issue of the nutritional adequacy of available supplies
within developing countries and the extent of under- and malnutrition. It was
estimated that two-thirds of the developing world's population lived in countries
where food output had risen more slowly than the effective demand for food.
And in most of those countries, growth in effective demand had not been rapid
enough to reduce the number of people living in extreme poverty. As a result,
progress in food production in the developing countries, together with progress in
economic development, although significant, had not been sufficient over the past
20 years to reduce appreciably the incidence of hunger and malnutrition. In many
countries, the proportion of the population suffering from under-nourishment had
declined but, taking the Third World as a whole, the actual number of hungry
persons had increased. This was what was called `the grim centre of the world's
food problem' (UN, 1974a, p. 55).

Assessing prospects for the next ten years, aggregate world food demand in

the 1970s and 1980s was conservatively calculated to grow at an annual rate
of 2.4 per cent (2 per cent due to population increase and 0.4 per cent due
to increased purchasing power). This aggregate projection masked differences
between developed countries, where the demand growth rate was estimated at 1.5
per cent per annum, and the developing market economies, where it was projected
to be 3.6 per cent in terms of farm value. It also masked differences among devel-
oping countries. In some countries, a combination of rapid population growth
and rapid growth in incomes would double the demand for food between 1970
and 1985. On the other hand, there would remain 34 countries in 1985, with a
total population of 800 million, where effective demand would still fall short of
food energy requirements.

The emergency of 197274 was not an isolated accident. It was the first intim-

ation of what might become a recurring manifestation of an underlying basic
imbalance. The prospect of mass starvation was averted, at least temporarily, by
good crops in 1973 and 1974, but half a million people were estimated to have died
due to food shortages, high prices and inadequate arrangements for emergency
food distribution. Many more were to suffer hunger and malnutrition, which
reduced their health and productivity, and increased their exposure to ill-health
in later years. Against this background, it was concluded that food aid on grant
and concessional terms would continue to be needed `at least for the next decade'
(UN, 1974b, p. 187). Three basic considerations led to this conclusion. Many

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Useful links	World Food Crisis MAC/WFY Page-118 0230_553559_14_cha10 118 197090. The World Food Crisis of the 1970s and its Aftermath fast as the developed countries, a truly remarkable achievement. The difference lay in their rates of growth in demand for food (3.5 per cent per annum in the developing countries compared to 2.5 per cent in the developed world) due mainly to faster population growth. But agricultural performance was by no means uniform throughout the developing world. While food production in the sub- continent of India rose impressively under the impact of the Green Revolution, it stagnated in sub-Saharan Africa. As a consequence, the need for food imports rose markedly in developing countries at a time when their ability to purchase them on commercial terms did not increase commensurately. In addition to the accumulating problems of food production and availability, there was the equally vital issue of the nutritional adequacy of available supplies within developing countries and the extent of under- and malnutrition. It was estimated that two-thirds of the developing world's population lived in countries where food output had risen more slowly than the effective demand for food. And in most of those countries, growth in effective demand had not been rapid enough to reduce the number of people living in extreme poverty. As a result, progress in food production in the developing countries, together with progress in economic development, although significant, had not been sufficient over the past 20 years to reduce appreciably the incidence of hunger and malnutrition. In many countries, the proportion of the population suffering from under-nourishment had declined but, taking the Third World as a whole, the actual number of hungry persons had increased. This was what was called `the grim centre of the world's food problem' (UN, 1974a, p. 55). Assessing prospects for the next ten years, aggregate world food demand in the 1970s and 1980s was conservatively calculated to grow at an annual rate of 2.4 per cent (2 per cent due to population increase and 0.4 per cent due to increased purchasing power). This aggregate projection masked differences between developed countries, where the demand growth rate was estimated at 1.5 per cent per annum, and the developing market economies, where it was projected to be 3.6 per cent in terms of farm value. It also masked differences among devel- oping countries. In some countries, a combination of rapid population growth and rapid growth in incomes would double the demand for food between 1970 and 1985. On the other hand, there would remain 34 countries in 1985, with a total population of 800 million, where effective demand would still fall short of food energy requirements. The emergency of 197274 was not an isolated accident. It was the first intim- ation of what might become a recurring manifestation of an underlying basic imbalance. The prospect of mass starvation was averted, at least temporarily, by good crops in 1973 and 1974, but half a million people were estimated to have died due to food shortages, high prices and inadequate arrangements for emergency food distribution. Many more were to suffer hunger and malnutrition, which reduced their health and productivity, and increased their exposure to ill-health in later years. Against this background, it was concluded that food aid on grant and concessional terms would continue to be needed `at least for the next decade' (UN, 1974b, p. 187). Three basic considerations led to this conclusion. Many back to top Next page
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